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Information Articles for the Paris TN and Henry County Tennessee area

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 22nd, 2015

By | February 22, 2015 | Email This Post Print This Post
 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The minutes of the January 27th-28th Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed officials continuing to make preparations for policy normalization.

There was some debate about the risks of moving either too late or too soon. “Several” Fed officials feared that waiting too long to raise rates would risk higher inflation, but “many” (which in Fedspeak, is more than “several”) worried that a premature increase in rates could dampen the economic recovery and leave the Fed with limited options to correct course.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

Many wanted to see signs that the economic recovery remained well-grounded after the transitory effects of lower gasoline prices and other factors dissipate. Several wanted to see a pickup in labor compensation.

There remained a lot of anxiety regarding possible changes to the language in the policy statement (specifically, the “patient” phrase), with worries that the financial markets might overreact to a shift in the wording.

Economic data were mixed, but in the case of residential construction and industrial production, it’s hard to get excited about January figures (the bigger test of the economy’s strength will come in the spring). The Producer Price Index surprised to the downside. Core inflation at the wholesale level fell, while the price gauges for the earlier stages of production exhibited disinflationary pipeline pressures.

Germany rejected Greece’s proposal to extend its debt. There was hope that the other members of the Eurogroup of finance ministers would be more agreeable, but talks were extended into the weekend.

Next week, financial market participants will likely react to news on Greece (even if the result is to kick the can down the road awhile longer). The U.S. economic data calendar is heavy, but the focus is expected to be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s monetary policy testimony to Congress. Yellen, who will be speaking on behalf of all Fed officials, not just herself, is likely to echo what was included in the FOMC minutes.

Later in the week, the CPI is expected to be reported as roughly flat year-over-year and the 4Q14 GDP estimate is likely to be revised lower (that’s not necessarily bad, as it should partly reflect slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit).

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17985.77 17972.38 0.91%
NASDAQ 4924.70 4857.61 3.98%
S&P 500 2097.45 2088.48 1.87%
MSCI EAFE 1863.88 1822.82 5.01%
Russell 2000 1227.91 1216.25 1.93%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.12 0.07
30-year mortgage 3.76 4.33

Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.544 1.668
Dollars per Euro 1.140 1.375
Japanese Yen per Dollar 118.890 102.020
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.248 1.092
Mexican Peso per Dollar 14.918 13.267

Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 51.16 103.31
Gold 1219.39 1319.31

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.59 0.51
10-year treasury 2.06 1.83
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.23 2.79

Treasury Yield Curve – 02/20/2015

Treasury Yield Curve – 02/20/2015

 

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 02/20/2015

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 02/20/2015

Economic Calendar

February 23rd Existing Home Sales (January)
February 24th Consumer Confidence (February)
Yellen Monetary Policy Testimony (tentative)
February 25th New Home Sales (January)
Yellen Monetary Policy (House)
February 26th Jobless Claims (week ending February 21st)
Consumer Price Index (January)
Durable Goods Orders (January)
March 2nd ISM Manufacturing Index (January)
March 6th Employment Report (February)
March 18th FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen Press Conference

Important Disclosures

[320left]Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business February 19th, 2015.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

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